Future Prediction of Temperature Changes in the Egyptian Delta and its Margins Until (2042CE) Using the Statistical Model (ARIMA)

The research aims to apply the ARIMA model in calculating future prediction of temperature changes (maximum and minimum) in the In the Egyptian delta and its margins. This is according to estimates suggested by the Box-Jenkins (B-J) methodology with a confidence level of 95%. To achieve the objectives of the study, statistical analysis methods have been used as measures (dispersion, significance scores, T-test - linear regression) which have showed an upward trend in temperatures during the study period (1985-2023 CE). This is in addition to the variables that were included in the prediction: autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and integrated moving average of autoregressive. These indicators are of great importance in calculating future prediction. The results have shown the correctness of estimating changes and differences to find future predictions of the ARIMA simulation model. After studying the statistical measurements with lower values to verify the coefficients, it has been found that the best and most appropriate models that can be adopted in future predictions for the Egyptian delta region are (AR1, D0, MA1). It turns out that the predicted values increase in summer and become relatively warm in winter according to large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean and the associated atmospheric fluctuations and Oscillations. The study has highlighted the importance of forecasting in identifying the general trend of change in developing future plans for decision makers to confront any change in various sectors of the environment and sustainable development.